Tesla, Cybertruck, Taxes, the stock, and how to possibly make 46.8% compounded per year.

Roni Elias
4 min readJun 26, 2021

First Updat 06/27/2021, Second Update 06/28/2021

Hello, some boring stuff out of the way. This is not legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice by any means whatsoever, and please speak to a licensed professional in your jurisdiction. Next to any pictures, mentioning of Tesla and Cybertruck are fully the property and trademarks of Tesla Inc.

CyberTruck

I believe 2022, Tesla has to fully focus on the Cybertruck and it has to do with something really really boring and we all do not like a lot, Taxes! Section 179, check out www.section179.org for more information. So let's assume the Cybertruck is over 6,000 pounds (this is an assumption do not have weights yet) a business even a small business can write off the full purchase of the Cybertruck. So if we take the Tri-Motor Cybertruck(I am using the Tri-Motor as I believe this will be the heaviest version) and with FSD is roughly at $80,000.00. So that the price of $80,000.00 could be written off/deducted and saving the buyer of $16,800.00 at the 21% tax bracket. This does not include any EV tax credit. Now before you say Heck Yes, speak to your CPA and or financial advisor. The vehicle would need to be in the name of the business also.

Next, the full $80,000.00 can be written off via section 179 for 100% if used for 100% of the time for business. Now if this Cybertruck is the only vehicle you will need to track and see is it 60/40 split or whatever. So if the Cybertruck is only used 60% of the time for business then can deduct 60% of the value. So section 179 is supposed to end at the end of 2022. Section 179 had a nickname in the back of the day as the Hummer rule. As a lot of business owners would by Hummers and expense them off via 179. So it is very unique a gas-guzzling car and yes I know the new Hummer will be Electric will help usher new technology and lower carbon emissions. It is truly the Circle of Life.

The Circle of Life

So 2022, Tesla has to move as many Cybertrucks as possible as Section 179 will be a great tool for it to even sell more Cybertrucks and customers wanting their CyberTrucks. If Tesla is able to focus on the CyberTruck which rumor has there are over 1.1 Million plus reservations will be able to move a lot of vehicles as the demand is there and the possibility of cancellations. I believe if more and more companies have a large of profits and need a vehicle, Tesla could even sell more Cybertrucks. I believe this could push the Tesla stock to $884.12 by the end of 2022. A 32.21% increase over 18 months. Should the Delta variant of Covid 19 This estimation would need to be revised.

If Tesla is able to sell at least 300,000 Cyber Trucks in 2022 that will increase sales and profits and drive earnings to the bottom and increase the stock price which could have a major positive movement for the stock price. I believe this could push the Tesla stock to $884.12 by the end of 2022. Excluding any income from FSD and or insurance. I am budgeting should there any substantial income from FSD or insurance that those will go either for scaling and assisting with R&D.

So in recap Section 179 can be a major driver for volume purchasing in 2021 and 2022. Would love to hear your comments and questions below. All the best.

Currently, their is supposedly over 1.1 Million Cybertruck orders. It currently costs $100 to hold a reservation and estimating that a reservation holder would get their vehicle delivery 3.5 years from reservation and a possible FSD price increase of $500. That would mean you made a little over 46.8% compounded return on a $100 holder. Looking at the history of FSD it is possible but no guarantee FSD will go up. I personally believe their could be 1 more time increase on FSD and then it goes to just a monthly recurring fee for all drivers.

May the Plaid be with You!

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Roni Elias
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Roni leads the team at TownCenter Partners for Litigation Finance & Multifamily Assets. Over $9.5 Billion in previous recovery & managed over $520M in assets.